The point is not only that after 2008 Russian military bases were set up there, and the border troops of the Russian FSB guard the borders. Georgia has no intention of returning Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force. Tbilisi has not come to terms with the loss of these territories and insists on restoring the country's territorial integrity. Russia recognized the independence of the regions that broke away from Georgia, and asked to Georgia and to the rest of the world to simply accept this new reality. Russia's defeat will also be Lukashenko's defeat, opening a new window of opportunities for his many domestic opponents.Īccording to Moscow, the problems of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were resolved following the results of the war in August 2008. However, being an ally of Moscow, Lukashenko shares not only the image of an aggressor with Putin, but also the burden of Russian military failures. As of today, he keeps the situation in the country under control, and the Belarusian opposition in exile looks weak and bogged down in civil strife. Lukashenko shares the burden of Russian military failures.Īs he moves closer to the Kremlin, the Belarusian leader has become an outcast in the West, bringing sanctions on his country and turning much of his own population against him. This happens despite the fact that Lukashenko, who met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a few years ago, assured all Ukrainians of his peaceful intentions, and that since 2014 he has provided a platform for negotiations to resolve the conflict in Donbas. For many years, the Belarusian leader managed to maneuver between Moscow and the West, but after a dubious re-election, he ended up in Putin's arms, who squeezed him so hard that the Russian military used the territory of Belarus as a springboard for the invasion of Ukraine. In 2020, after having repressed thousands of unprecedented protests in the country, Alexander Lukashenko held on to the presidency. It appears more and more likely that the participants in this unresolved conflict will act on their own with impunity, especially Azerbaijan, who is being very proactive.īelarus: a friend more dangerous than an enemy
The situation in the South Caucasus is becoming less dependent on Moscow. Secondly, if it was not for Moscow's bogging down in Ukraine, Baku's actions would have been impossible. First, as Azerbaijan is getting stronger, it continues to force Armenia to a peace drawn on its own terms. But in September of this year, hostilities broke out again between Azerbaijan and Armenia, killing several hundred people.Įxperts on the region drew two conclusions from these events. This worked intermittently until the Russian-Ukrainian war. 10, 2020, the parties pledged to resolve all disputes peacefully. The question of the status of that small part of Nagorno-Karabakh, that was not occupied by Azerbaijan, remained unresolved.Īccording to the trilateral ceasefire statement of Azerbaijan's, Armenia's and Russia's presidents on Nov.
In Karabakh, there were occasional deadly clashes between the remaining Armenian population and the Azerbaijani military. Secondly, the Russian military came to the territory that Baku considers as its own,Īt the same time, mines were laid during a peace established with the help of Russia, and they began to explode almost immediately after the end of hostilities. Firstly, most of the territories of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which had been controlled by Armenians after the first war, came under the control of Azerbaijan. Two years ago, Baku's victory in the second Karabakh war established a new status quo in the region.
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